Miguel Acosta
CV   Research


Working Papers

Macroeconomic Effects of UI Extensions at Short and Long Durations. 2024 (August).
Abstract We study the macroeconomic effects of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit extensions in the United States at short and long durations. To do this, we develop a new state level dataset on trigger variables for UI extensions and a "UI Benefits Calculator" based on detailed legislative and administrative sources spanning five decades. Our identification approach exploits variation across states in the options governing the Extended Benefits program. We find that UI extensions during time periods when UI benefit durations are already long--such as in the Great Recession--have minimal effects. However, UI extensions when initial durations are shorter have substantial effects on the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving UI. Through the lens of a search-and-matching model, we show that these estimates are consistent with microeconomic estimates of the duration elasticity to UI and small general equilibrium effects of UI extensions at short durations.

The Perceived Causes of Monetary Policy Surprises. 2023 (February).
Abstract High frequency changes in asset prices around Federal Reserve (Fed) announcements are the primary measures used for estimating the effects of monetary policy. Vis-a-vis standard theory, these measures exhibit puzzling effects on a range of macroeconomic outcomes. A debate has emerged over the source of these puzzling effects: Do they arise because the Fed simultaneously communicates about monetary policy and the economic outlook, or are they simply the result of an omitted variables bias? In this paper I decompose monetary policy announcements into a rich set of identified shocks. To sidestep the shortcomings of asset prices, I construct my shocks from the text of newspaper articles written about Fed announcements, and achieve structural identification using discrete changes in Fed communications. I find that shocks to current and expected future interest rates exhibit large, theoretically consistent effects on macroeconomic outcomes. I also find that shocks to beliefs about supply and demand factors have substantial effects even after controlling for omitted variables. This suggests that Fed announcements indeed reveal information about the economic outlook, an aspect of policy that is important to take into account.

The Regressive Nature of the U.S. Tariff Code: Origins and Implications. 2024 (February).
Abstract The U.S. tariff code has a surprising and little-known feature: Tariffs are systematically higher on lower-end versions of goods relative to their higher-end counterparts. For example, a handbag made of reptile leather has a tariff rate of 5.3 percent, while a plastic-sided handbag has a tariff rate of 16 percent. In this paper, we show that the negative correlation between unit values and tariff rates within narrowly defined goods holds across the entire U.S. tariff schedule, but is driven by consumer goods. We construct new time series of variety-level tariff rates back to 1930 to show that the negative correlation emerged during U.S. trade negotiations in the 1930s and 40s and has persisted until today. We also draw on other historical data and records to shed light on the forces that generated this regressive pattern. Despite its historical origins, the pattern is still relevant for U.S. consumers today: Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that equalizing rates on low- and high-value varieties would result in savings that disproportionately benefit lower income consumers.


Publications

Constructing High-Frequency Monetary Policy Surprises from SOFR Futures.
Abstract Eurodollar futures were the bedrock for constructing high-frequency series of monetary policy surprises, so their discontinuation poses a challenge for the continued empirical study of monetary policy. We propose an approach for updating the series of Gürkaynak et al. (2005) and Nakamura and Steinsson (2018) with SOFR futures in place of Eurodollar futures that is conceptually and materially consistent. We recommend using SOFR futures from January 2022 onward based on regulatory developments and trading volumes. The updated series suggest that surprises over the recent tightening cycle are larger in magnitude than those seen over the decade prior and restrictive on average.

A New Measure of Central Bank Transparency and Implications for the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy.
Abstract Transparency has been posited as a channel through which monetary policy is made more effective. This paper presents a new time-varying measure of the transparency of Federal Reserve deliberations, derived from the documents that the Fed uses to record and summarize each of its meetings. The measure---the similarity of the minutes and transcripts of each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting---is largely, though not entirely, shaped by FOMC leadership. Monetary policy shocks have about a 40 percent larger effect on nominal and real interest rates when the prevailing level of transparency is high, suggesting an important role for transparency in determining the efficacy of monetary policy. These effects are primarily driven by transparency about monetary policy strategies conditional on the state of the economy. A simple model of FOMC announcements consistent with these results highlights that high transparency enhances monetary policy's effectiveness by increasing the FOMC's signaling ability, but diminishes the ability for policymakers to generate market surprises.

Using Occupation to Measure Intergenerational Mobility.
Abstract Scholarly investigations of intergenerational mobility typically focus on either the occupations of fathers and sons or their incomes. Using an identical sample of fathers and sons, we examine how estimates of intergenerational mobility in income and occupational prestige are affected by (1) measurement that uses long time averages and (2) varying the point in the life cycle when outcomes are measured. We find that intergenerational occupational mobility is overstated when using a single year of fathers' occupation compared to a 10-year average centered on mid-career. We also find that for both income and occupation, mobility estimates are largest when sons are in their mid-career, suggesting that this may be the ideal period in which to measure their status. Finally, we see differences in the pattern of estimates across the two types of measures: for income, estimates of intergenerational persistence are highest when fathers are in their mid-career; for occupation, estimates are much larger when fathers occupations are accounted for late in their careers.


Policy Writing

Hanging on every word: Semantic analysis of the FOMC's postmeeting statement. 2015.

Selected Discussions

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence.
Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach.
How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises.
Inflation Measured Every Day Keeps Adverse Responses Away: Temporal Aggregation and Monetary Policy Transmission.
Deep Learning Bank Distress from News and Numerical Financial Data.